{"id":435153,"date":"2024-11-15T15:58:28","date_gmt":"2024-11-15T20:58:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/?post_type=article&#038;p=435153"},"modified":"2024-11-15T15:58:28","modified_gmt":"2024-11-15T20:58:28","slug":"tennessee-vs-georgia-preview-betting-trends-advanced-stats-analysis","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/sec-football\/tennessee-vs-georgia-preview-betting-trends-advanced-stats-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Tennessee vs. Georgia preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee vs. Georgia is a matchup between 2 teams desperate to make an impression on the College Football Playoff selection committee. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>The Bulldogs already have 2 losses this season and are currently on the outside-looking-in of the Playoff picture. Tennessee, on the other hand, only has 1 loss but may still need a win on Saturday in order to secure a spot in the 12-team field.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let&#8217;s take a look at some historical betting trends, advanced stats and some other useful info about these teams:<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Tennessee vs. Georgia betting lines<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lines via<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/link\/draftkings-sportsbook\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DraftKings<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Spread: Tennessee +9.5 (-110) | Georgia -9.5 (-110)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Total: Over 47 (-110) | Under 47 (-110)<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Looking to get in on the action this fall? Here&#8217;s Saturday Down South&#8217;s ranking of all the best<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/sports-betting\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">sports betting apps<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that are available in 2024! Multiple apps are currently offering sign-up bonuses for new users!<\/span><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><b>Betting trends to know for Tennessee<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee is&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5-4 against the spread in 2024<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">1-6 against the spread as an underdog of 7+ points during the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/coaches\/josh-heupel\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Josh Heupel<\/a> era<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">6-8 against the spread in SEC road games under Josh Heupel<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Betting trends to know for Georgia<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia is&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2-7 against the spread in 2024<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">17-21-1 against the spread as home favorite of 7+ points in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/coaches\/kirby-smart\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kirby Smart<\/a> era<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">15-15 against the spread in home SEC games in the Kirby Smart era<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Advanced Stats preview\u00a0<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Success rate will be the most important stat referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is &#8220;successful&#8221; depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here&#8217;s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed &#8220;successful&#8221; depending on the context:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let&#8217;s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Rushing success rate<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee rushing offense success rate: 44.6%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia rushing defense success rate: 34.9%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee&#8217;s rushing offense has been carrying a heavy burden this season. With their passing attack not what they expected it to be, the Vols have relied on running back Dylan Sampson to generate points. Sampson leads the SEC with 20 rushing touchdowns and is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry despite facing increasingly-stacked boxes from SEC defenses. Despite Sampson generating plenty of headlines, however, this is not a very efficient part of Tennessee&#8217;s profile. The Vols rank outside the top 100 in rushing EPA per game, according to Game on Paper. A success rate south of 45% is just a little better than mediocre and the Vols aren&#8217;t creating a ton of explosive runs, either.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Georgia&#8217;s rush defense is solid. The Bulldogs rank 19th nationally in rush defense EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. Georgia has battled some injury issues up front this season, but it appears to be getting healthier. Georgia&#8217;s rush defense was a weakness after the first half of the season, but the Bulldogs have kept 3 of their last 4 opponents to 3 yards per play or fewer. Limiting Tennessee&#8217;s running game is a big part of this matchup, and UGA seems equipped to do so.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia rushing offense success rate: 45.9%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee rushing defense success rate: 34.2%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Georgia has had a solid season running the ball, but the Bulldogs won&#8217;t be 100% this weekend when they host the Vols. Trevor Etienne and a couple other running backs have already been ruled out for this weekend due to injury, while Cash Jones is questionable. That leaves freshman running back Nate Frazier as Georgia&#8217;s top option on the ground this weekend. However, Frazier has not been Georgia&#8217;s most efficient running back this season. He has an individual rushing success rate of 38% so far this year, per Game on Paper. Frazier is also coming off of a game in-which he fumbled vs. Ole Miss last weekend. This is a significant question mark going into a game where the Bulldogs are facing one of the nation&#8217;s best run defenses.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee&#8217;s rush defense is one of the very best in the country. A sub-35% success rate is something only the top teams in the country can claim, especially this late in the season. That mark ranks 5th nationally entering Week 12 and 2nd in the SEC behind only Oklahoma. However, it&#8217;s worth noting that Tennessee has slipped a little bit in this regard over the past couple of weeks. In wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State, the Vols posted a rush defense success rate of 40.6%. That&#8217;s not a disaster by any means, but it&#8217;s not elite either.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Passing success rate<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee passing offense success rate: 47.7%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia passing defense success rate: 36%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee&#8217;s passing attack has been a relative disappointment this season, but the Vols do have a respectable passing success rate of almost 48% on the year. The issue has been a lack of explosive plays. Tennessee has managed just 17 passing plays of 20+ yards in SEC play this season, which ranks 13th in the conference. It&#8217;s also worth noting that Nico Iamaleava may not be 100% healthy for this game after missing the second half vs. Mississippi State due to a concussion.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Georgia&#8217;s secondary has been solid so far this season. However, it was a relatively big issue in the loss to Ole Miss last weekend. Georgia allowed nearly 10 yards per attempt through the air in a 28-10 loss to the Rebels. In its prior game against a top opponent, though, Georgia limited Texas to just 230 passing yards on 49 attempts. The lack of consistency has been apparent at times this season (Georgia is 8th in the SEC in pass defense efficiency), but the upside for this secondary remains exceptionally high.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia passing offense success rate: 45.7%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee passing defense success rate: 35.6%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For Georgia, its passing game has easily been the most disappointing part of the 2024 season for the Bulldogs. Carson Beck has been largely dreadful this season, particularly in SEC play. He&#8217;s already thrown 12 interceptions to SEC defenses this year, which is 4 more than any other quarterback entering Week 12. Georgia&#8217;s offense has averaged fewer than 5 yards per play in 3 separate games already this season. That didn&#8217;t happen a single time in 2023 when Beck was also the quarterback.<\/p>\n<p>Tennessee&#8217;s pass defense is elite. The Vols are even better from an EPA perspective than they are in success rate. Per Game on Paper, Tennessee ranks 6th nationally in EPA-per-play pass defense. Tennessee has done an excellent job of limiting explosive passing plays this year. The Vols have only permitted 19 passes of 20+ yards so far this year, which is the third-best mark in the SEC. Tennessee is also first in the SEC in third-down conversion rate defense at just 24.19%.<\/p>\n<h3><b>1 other key: Will Georgia&#8217;s offense be able to move the ball?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia is worse than it was a year ago on both sides of the ball. That much is clear entering Week 12. But the drop-off has been much more severe on offense. The question now becomes: how will the Bulldogs respond when they&#8217;re met with possibly the best defense in the country?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Georgia fans may find some optimism if they go looking for Carson Beck&#8217;s home\/road splits. Beck has been a much, much better quarterback this season at home than he has been on the road. He has a 10-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio so far this season when playing in Athens. Compare that to a 3-to-7 ratio when playing on the road and 4-to-3 in a couple of neutral-site games.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, you could chalk that up to Georgia&#8217;s competition at home so far this season. The Bulldogs have played 3 games at home so far this season: Tennessee Tech, Auburn and Mississippi State. This will be the first time UGA is facing a strong team at home this season, so it seems fair to question whether or not Beck&#8217;s home\/road splits will show up on Saturday vs. the Vols.<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s also the matter of Georgia&#8217;s running game, which has been fine to this point in the season. However, life without Trevor Etienne could be difficult. And more importantly, Tennessee has arguably the best run defense in the country. If Frazier struggles as the lead back, Georgia is going to need Beck&#8217;s best performance of the season in order to move the ball consistently on this Vols defense.<\/p>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story exclude garbage-time statistics and are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Trends are via BetIQ.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tennessee vs. Georgia is shaping up to be a game with significant postseason implications for both teams.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":356456,"featured_media":435540,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","tags":[],"class_list":["post-435153","article","type-article","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","article_types-scheduled","series_tags-bets-no-ads","teams-sec-football"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/435153"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/356456"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435153"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/435540"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.saturdaydownsouth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}